Throughout the next decade, many idealized numerical experiments demonstrated the capability of this model to produce a realistic hurricane structure, although it would not be until the 1980s that simulations would be attempted using data from real storms. An axisymmetric hurricane model was constructed first, and then in 1973 experiments were made with a three-dimensional model. The hurricane dynamics group at GFDL was formed under the leadership of Yoshio Kurihara for the purpose of performing hurricane research through numerical modeling. The GFDL hurricane prediction system originated as a research model in the 1970s. ![]() ![]() History of the GFDL Operational Hurricane Prediction System These include the inflow of low-level air into the hurricane’s inner core region the supply of the storm’s energy from the evaporation of water from the ocean surface updrafts of warm, moist air that feed thunderstorms in the core region of the storm, which help to intensify the hurricane and the outflow of cooler, drier air at upper levels of the troposphere: The GFDL hurricane model is able to reproduce the features that are important in a hurricane. One of the biggest challenges for hurricane modeling is creating a model that can accurately depict the large-scale, environmental flow of the atmosphere that is largely responsible for steering the hurricane, while at the same time representing the finer scale details of the inner core region that determine the intensity of the storm. Mathematical equations can approximately describe the various motions and interactions that occur in the atmosphere. The laws of physics dictate the manner in which that motion takes place. The atmosphere is a fluid of air parcels in constant motion. The challenge of representing a hurricane in a numerical model Since 1995, the GFDL Hurricane Prediction System has been used operationally by the National Hurricane Center and has consistently been one of the top-performing models utilized by NHC. Much of this progress is due to advances in numerical weather prediction, that is, the use of computer models which approximate the fluid motions of the atmosphere to create forecasts of the weather at some time in the future. Over the past 20 years, significant advances have been made in the science of hurricane track forecasting. ![]() ![]() HAFS is supported under Hurricane Supplemental project - 3A-2: Accelerate Re-engineering of Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS).Operational Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasting It will provide an advanced analysis and forecast system for cutting-edge research on modeling, physics, data assimilation, and coupling to earth system components for high-resolution TC predictions within the outlined Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS)/Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP) objectives of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). HAFS will provide an operational analysis and forecast system out to 7 days for hurricane forecasters with reliable, robust and skillful guidance on TC track and intensity (including RI), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall and tornadoes associated with TCs. HAFS will be a multi-scale model and data assimilation package capable of providing analyses and forecasts of the inner core structure of the TC out to 7 days, which is key to improving size and intensity predictions, as well as the large-scale environment that is known to influence the TC's motion. One of the key strategies defined in the revised Hurricane Forecast Improvement Plan (HFIP) in response to the proposed framework for addressing Section 104 of the Weather Research Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 is to advance an operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) at NOAA/NWS.
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